That was the question posed in this morning’s JVS Show on Three Counties Radio in which I took part, following David Cameron’s overnight effective veto of a new European treaty to address the Eurozone crisis.
I told the programme that I thought it was the wrong question. The issue is not whether other European leaders have been upset or whether a bunch of swivel-eyed backbenchers has been appeased but whether the fundamentals of our economy have been strengthened or weakened.
At the time of the broadcast, the jury on that was out – FTSE marginally down, the French stock market up, the German stock market flat. We will know more as the day and week progress.
The key issue is jobs. Young people getting them, current workers keeping them, taxes being paid from them so that public services can be funded and improved. That’s what matters to everyone.
History will judge whether David Cameron’s throwing a spanner into last night’s works was a profound category error or just another halting step on the British move to semi-detached status in Europe. The risk is that while history makes her mind up, there might be a much more immediate judgement in terms of our economy.
Jonathan Vernon Smith asked me if we could go it alone, outside Europe. Well of course we can. But the terms of trade are shifting.
For all my life, Western Europe and North America have been top of the world, our big companies have been the global giants, we have had things our way.
With the rapid rise of China, India, Russia and Brazil – and a whole lot of other eastern economies jostling behind them, they are the new battleships and it won’t always be comfortable being a cork bobbing in their wake. Even Europe may look increasingly irrelevant, but its critical mass is clearly always going to be greater than the UK on its own.
PS It is interesting to ponder the sterling-euro exchange rate over the last few months (and years) and how stable it has been. If the Eurozone is in crisis, that is hardly a vote of confidence in the UK. The fact is that all of us in the western world are jointly on the edge of an economic precipice, we will do far better working together, and that should be the sole focus of our attention.