The coalition government is in the midst of a massive unilateral disarmament programme, as part of the Ministry of Defence’s contribution to balancing the government’s books.
In total the MoD has to find £74 billion of savings over the next ten years. The continuing impact on the army, navy and air force is going to be horrendous, even if the overall cuts are lower in percentage terms than in some departments.
It makes yesterday’s discussion on the future of Trident organised by think tank Centre Forum very relevant. The argument presented by Toby Fenwick in his pamphlet “Dropping the Bomb” is that replacing the Trident submarine launched nuclear weapons system at a cost of £25 – £33 billion is no longer the correct strategic choice for Britain in the first half of the 21st century.
Yesterday’s debate was held under Chatham House rules but essentially the argument comes down to whether Britain best projects its international power and contributes to global security by maintaing at least one nuclear-armed submarine permanently on station – even at the cost of maintaining our conventional armed forces with kit and resources – or by being able to put boots on the ground in terms of being able to deploy properly resourced conventional forces in hot spots as and when needed. [As an interesting observation, the overall size of the UK armed forces in all the services is less than the size of the US Marine Corps.]
At the risk of over-simplification, the pro-Trident replacement argument was that the future is not predictable, how do we know there is no nuclear threat, and that the simple existence of Trident shapes the global strategic environment. Human nature hasn’t changed, yet the major powers have not gone to war with each other since 1945. How would the UK giving up Trident influence North Korea or Iran?
The response (again over-simplified) is that we don’t have a crystal ball but we do have finite resources. It is far better that the UK keeps an effective ability to support the international community with conventional resources rather than turning into “Belgium with the bomb” with no clear idea of the target for such nuclear force.
In the end, this comes down to gut feel and belief. Personally I remained convinced by the conventional forces argument.
There was a highly technical debate yesterday as to whether the UK could remain a “nuclear threshold” country, which is the proposition made by Toby Fenwick in his pamphlet. Essentially this means that we retain the expertise, skills, and weapons grade plutonium to develop an aircraft delivered bomb with notice of about 12 months. I suspect that this is like being half-pregnant, you either go all the way with nuclear or you don’t. I hope we don’t.